BOLTZMANN CAPITAL

Looking for edge
in noisy markets

Disciplined, model-driven quantitative strategies for prediction markets.

Our Approach
Our Philosophy

Prediction markets price thousands of outcomes every day. Most prices are about right; a few are systematically off. Our models look for the few, and patient process turns them into edge.

At Boltzmann Capital OÜ, we work as quantitative partners to a small number of businesses operating in prediction markets.

"Bring forward what is true. Write it so that it is clear. Defend it to your last breath."
Ludwig Boltzmann
Core Principles

How we work

01
Rigor
Every model we deliver has been tested, documented, and stress-checked before a client uses it. We optimize for being right over being fast.
02
Transparency
Methodology, assumptions, and limitations are documented for every project. Clients should understand how the model works, not just trust the output.
03
Patience
Small edges in prediction markets compound only over many cycles. We build for the long arc, not single events.
Contact

Get in touch

We take on a small number of new engagements each year. If your business operates in prediction markets and you'd like to discuss working together, send us a note.

Thank you. We'll be in touch shortly.